5TH WRITETHRU SATURDAY AM after FRIDAY 11:06PM post: Godzilla: King of the Monsters has slowed down significantly, from the $24M opening day that many were seeing midday Friday to an estimated $19.6M yesterday. This has greatly shifted the Warner Bros./Legendary movie’s opening from the previously projected $60M-$65M to just under its tracking projection of $50M with $49.5M.
Why did this happen? Sometimes analysts see a rosy midday picture with presales, then as the evening comes, ticket sales slowdown. Some attribute the downturn in business to the pic playing young with 22% under 17. On CinemaScore, the under 18 set at 16% gave King an A-, ditto for the under 25 crowd who repped 41% of last night’s audience. Before today, Fandango saw King of the Monsters advance ticket sales ahead of Kong: Skull Island. Many were bullish.
In addition, let’s face facts: Godzilla is a tried property and refreshing interest in this ancient IP becomes a challenge. Warner Bros. sold King of the Monsters squarely on the fanboy appeal of Stranger Things star Millie Bobby Brown with the first two trailers opening on her. Outside of the lizards, she’s the star, and human element of the pic. Helping raise the pic’s profile was her access to 20.3M fans on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
On the upside, exits are great with solid PostTraks from last night in 4 1/2 stars from general audiences and 5 stars from families. King of the Monsters also gets a B+ CinemaScore which is the same grade as Legendary’s 2014 Godzilla and Kong: Skull Island. Bad reviews are likely the thorn in Godzilla’s side here, slowing the big lug down as he’s the worst received out of the Legendary trio at 40% Rotten versus the previous two pic’s 75% fresh. Says RelishMix about some negative pre-release chatter on social for King of the Monsters, “Recent outings like Pacific Rim have let moviegoers down with exaggerated sequences and reliance upon effects instead of story. This segment is happy to see a rising star like Millie Bobbie Brown in the movie – but they’re also wondering how many movies like this can be made with all of humanity in peril, yet the story focuses on just a handful.”
Kong: Skull Island surprised over its opening weekend. We initially roasted the pic on its opening night, then business surged Saturday over Friday by 19% (going from $20M to $23M) for a very good $61M. No one saw those numbers until they happened. Maybe history repeats itself here. One thing is for certain, and that’s overseas has the heavy lifting to do. While Legendary contends the net cost before P&A is $170M, several sources told us that King of the Monsters was substantially higher. I’m hearing just under $185M seems right (though I have others telling me the project was originally shopped around at $230M net). Warner Bros. is on the hook for 25% as they wanted to share in any potential spoils of Legendary monsters’ franchise. The 2014 Godzilla made an estimated $52M-plus in profit after all post theatrical streams off combined global P&A and production costs just under $300M and $529M worldwide B.O. King of the Monsters was largely shot between 2017 and 2018 in Atlanta with tax credits. Second unit work was done in Mexico. Legendary East is handling China, Togo has Japan. I’m informed King of the Monsters is not a China-US co-production whereby a larger than normal 25%-27% rental from the Middle Kingdom would flow back here.
King of the Monsters played best in the West & South-West. Imax drove 19% of Friday’s take with 3D repping 10%.
Paramount/Marv Films’ Rocketman is still staying in the range we saw at $22.9M, with Universal/Blumhouse’s Ma lower from yesterday’s $20M at $18.2M, the latter still very good for a $5M net production before P&A. In the wake of Disney’s Avengers: Endgame, this is the best result for wide entry counter-programming to date this summer, and that’s to be commended as each studio positioned these pics in the market as events. Paramount toured Rocketman to Cannes, Australia, London, San Francisco, with rotating combination of Elton John, Taron Egerton and director Dexter Fletcher in tow. Also, both movies are magnetic in their branding: one a never-before-seen Hollywood musical biopic about a living pop legend and the other a unique genre high concept (the cool adult gone cyber stalker) under the Good Housekeeping horror label.
Coming away from the electricity at Cannes, John and Egerton’s performance at the Carlton Beach, and Rocketman‘s amazing Fellini-esque showstopping numbers, I was shocked to hear from various insiders and Egerton at the press conference how this pic was poised to do less than Bohemian Rhapsody (though still solid business). They were correct: The R-rating and ratcheted up gay content were potential speed bumps. Also, Bohemian Rhapsody played in early November against less competition and notched the top of the charts while Rocketman is up against a ton of tentpoles.
According to RelishMix, pre-weekend social chatter was quite positive coming away from Cannes for Rocketman, with a social media universe of 115M. Though lower than Bohemian Rhapsody‘s 242M across Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube/Facebook video view, Rocketman video materials were more viral over the Freddie Mercury movie, 19:1 to 9:1. Throughout the campaign, going back to John’s Oscar viewing party, the movie’s marketing push capitalized on both John and Egerton’s performing power. See video below of Egerton singing “Tiny Dancer” at John’s AIDS Foundation Academy Awards viewing party.
Juxtaposing last night’s demos with Bohemian Rhapsody‘s first day exits on PostTrak, the audience make-up is roughly similar between both titles. Both leaned heavily over 25 (Bohemian 77% to Rocketman‘s 81%). The Elton John biopic was slightly more female than Freddie Mercury, 56% to 51%. The under 35 crowd was greater on Rocketman over Bo Rap, 55% to 47%. Of the four quad male/female 25 +/- demos, Rocketman scored the best with females over 25 (90%) who came out at 45% with the other three quads graded the John biopic in the seventy percentile range. For the most part, Bohemian Rhapsody had a better positive score among the four quads, ranging from 83% to 89%. Rocketman has nothing to fret since musicals leg out and the exits are great with an A- CinemaScore and PostTrak showing 4 stars. Like King of the Monsters, Saturday night for Rocketman could demonstrate it’s alright, alright for the pic’s ticket sales.
Ma‘s exits aren’t spectacular with a B- CinemaScore and 2 1/2 stars on PostTrak. That might explain why its business is slightly lower than anticipated. RelishMix noticed a mixed social reaction to the whole conceit of a twisted, partying adult. Ma was mostly female, 57% to 43% with 74% under 35 years old and 68% falling between 18-34 years old. Updated diversity demos were 37% Caucasian, 36% African American, 16% Hispanic, & 11% Asian/Other. The East coast and the entire South, especially the SouthEast were the best territories for Ma.
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Chart updating with Saturday figures
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3rd Update, Friday Midday: Warner Bros/Legendary’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters is biting off more than he was expected to chew, headed for a $60M-$65M weekend after a $24M Friday at 4,108 theaters that includes $6.3M in previews.
PostTrak exits last night for Godzilla and friends were fantastic with 4 1/2 stars from general audiences and 5 stars from both parents and kids under 12. General crowds gave the film a 75% definite recommend, parents an 80% and kids 88%. Caucasians were less than 50% of the crowd with very good turnout by Hispanic (24%) and Asian moviegoers (13%). West coast business is bound to be very good. Male heavy as expected at 70%, with leading demos being men over 25 (41%), men under 25 (29%), females over 25 (18%) and females under 25 (12%). Interestingly, females like the movie a little bit more than guys, 87% to 84%.
Disney’s Aladdin will take 2nd place in weekend 2 with $11M today and $43M for the weekend at 4,476, -47%, for a running 10-day total of $185.6M by Sunday.
Paramount/Marv Film’s Rocketman is seeing an estimated first day of $8.5M (including those $2.3M previews) and a 3-day between $23M-$25M. Solid 4 stars on Postrak last night, 64% definite recommend with 81% over 25. Females 25+ are taking up the majority of seats at 45% and they love this Elton John biopic more than other quad at 90%. Males over 25 are second biggest audience at 35% followed by females under 25 at 11% and males under 25 at 9%. We’ll see if the kids come out more, but it’s not PG-13 like Bohemian Rhapsody.
Universal/Blumhouse’s Ma is eyeing an estimated $8M today (plus $1.4M previews) and a 3-day of $20M, a fantastic start for the $5M net production (before P&A) and technically Octavia Spencer’s first leading role on the big screen. Ma drew 32% Caucasian, very strong African American at 31%, 19% Hispanic and 13% Asian yesterday. Fairly even age quads with Males over 25 at 31%, females over 25 at 26%, females under 25 at 23%, and males under 25 at 20%. Near 70% positive on PostTrak for the Tate Taylor-directed thriller.
No. 5 belongs to Lionsgate’s John Wick: Chapter 3 with $10M-11M in weekend 3 at 3,604, -57%, for a running total on the high end of $125.8M by Sunday.
UA/Annapurna’s Booksmart having a solid hold in weekend 2 of $4M as of this point in time, -42% for a running total of $15M. Compare this to Screen Gems/H Collective’s Brightburn which is flaming out with a $2.1M weekend 2 take, -73%. for a 10-day of $14M.
2nd update 8:48AM after 7:03AM post w/Rocketman: Warner Bros./Legendary’s Godzilla: King of the Monsters ate $6.3M last night.
How that compares to other Legendary beastly movies: It’s lower than 2014’s Godzilla previews of $9.3m (started at 8PM) and higher than March 2017’s Kong: Skull Island ($3.7M off 7pm shows) and March 2018’s Pacific Rim Uprising sequel ($2.35M). The studio’s first Godzilla took in a $38.4M Friday (of which its previews repped 24%) and went on to do a massive $93.1M. Kong: Skull Island drew an opening day of $20.1M (previews repped 18%) and 3-day of $61M.
Godzilla: King of the Monsters’ RT Score is at 41% Rotten. From certain realms with knowledge of pre-sales, we’re hearing Godzilla and friends is Teflon-proof against reviews, and could potentially meet or excel its $50M+ projection. We’ll see. The pic plays in 4,108 theaters today. The hope here by many is that this weekend at the box office won’t be a scenario of haves and have nots between tentpoles and the lower budgeted movies, in sum counter-programming is poised to finally work with Paramount/MARV film’s Rocketman and Universal/Blumhouse’s Ma.
The later pic, a reteam between The Help‘s Tate Taylor and Oscar winner Octavia Spencer made $1.4M at 2,400 theaters last night off showtimes that started at 7PM. Pic expands to 2,808 today. Comparable preview grosses include such Blumhouse originals as The Visit ($1.02M), Truth or Dare ($750K), as well as Tyler Perry’s Acrimony ($1M). Many are betting that Ma, which cost a net $5M, smashes over $20M for the weekend.
Rocketman saw $1.75M last night from 7pm shows. But the Dexter Fletcher-directed Elton John biopic has an extra $580K from May 18 Fandango Paid previews for a total $2.3M. Some have been continually cautious not to compare the R-rated musical biopic to the PG-13 Freddie Mercury Bohemian Rhapsody. That movie scored $3.9M in previews (also from 7pm starts) back in November, however, Rocketman has better reviews than the Queen pic, 90% Certified fresh to 61% fresh. A Star Is Born, backing out its pre-previews, made $3.2M on its first Thursday night. You can’t ignore the fact of how fun Rocketman is, and even it has less fuel than the $51M start of Bohemian Rhapsody or A Star Is Born‘s $42.9M, many are certain that the Paramount film will just play and play. Outlook is $25M for Rocketman at 3,610 theaters, a great start for this pic which costs $41M net before P&A.
Among those films already in play yesterday, Disney’s Aladdin was No. 1 with $6.5M, -14%, for a running total of $142.8M in its first week.
https://deadline.com/2019/06/godzilla-king-of-the-monsters-rocketman-ma-opening-weekend-box-office-1202624876/
2019-06-01 15:02:13Z
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