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Quick Fix
— DCCC Chair Cheri Bustos sat down with reporters on Thursday to lay out the House battleground and announced a big December haul for the party committee.
Story Continued Below
— Tom Steyer surged in new polls in Nevada and South Carolina, earning him a spot on next week’s Democratic debate stage. Meanwhile, another early-state poll shows Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren battling it out for first place in New Hampshire.
— We have more end-of-year fundraising numbers, as congressional candidates begin to report their hauls. Two more DCCC Frontliners raised over $900,000.
Happy Friday! Ally has today’s Topline (amutnick@politico.com; @allymutnick) with what she learned from Bustos’ conversation with reporters. Email me at zmontellaro@politico.com and follow me at @ZachMontellaro.
Email the rest of the Campaign Pro team at sshepard@politico.com and jarkin@politico.com. Follow us on Twitter: @POLITICO_Steve and @JamesArkin.
Days until the Iowa caucuses: 24
Days until the New Hampshire primary: 32
Days until the Nevada caucuses: 43
Days until the South Carolina primary: 50
Days until the 2020 election: 298
TopLine
HOUSE OUTLOOK — Bustos and the DCCC’s new executive director, Lucinda Guinn, sat down with reporters for an on-the-record briefing Thursday afternoon at DCCC headquarters to make the case for why House Democrats are poised to maintain their majority. One big piece of what they hope is a winning formula: fundraising. Bustos announced the DCCC raised $14.4 million in December, bringing its 2019 total to $125 million. (For context, the committee raised $9.5 million in the December of 2017, the last off-year.) Another interesting fundraising nugget: Bustos reported that 75 percent of Frontliners raised $500,000 or more last quarter and said many of them started 2020 with $1 million or more in the bank.
Offensive targets are another key piece of the strategy, DCCC officials said, touting six pickup opportunities in Texas alone. Bustos named three repeat candidates — Gina Ortiz Jones in TX-23, Betsy Dirksen Londrigan in IL-13 and Dan Feehan in MN-01 — as three of the more impressive challengers. (It’s worth noting here that Democrats have less formidable recruits in other key pickup opportunities like NE-02, PA-01 and NY-24.)
Bustos also dished on committee efforts to help members in tough primaries. DCCC officials sat down with Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio), who Bustos said is “facing the toughest race she’s faced since she was first elected in 2012,” to offer advice and resumes for potential campaign staff. (Beatty was outraised in Q3 by challenger Morgan Harper.) When pressed, Bustos and Guinn declined to rule out field or ad expenditures for other members in primary battles, like Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-Ill.) and Henry Cuellar (D-Tex.), but they didn’t sound enthusiastic about the prospect. “Look, we’ve got to hang on to the majority, and we have 42 Frontliners. That is our priority,” Bustos said.
The DCCC feels impeachment has not drastically altered Democratic prospects to keep the House, citing internal data. “Not huge. Not a huge shift in numbers,” Bustos said when asked about the impact of impeachment on the majority. Officials also brushed off concerns that Democrats would struggle to win reelection in Trump-won seats with the president on the ballot. Bustos touted her ability to win in 2016, as Trump carried her northwestern Illinois seat, and said internal committee metrics show Trump isn’t popular in “a lot of” the 30 Democratic-held seats he carried in 2016: “I know he’s underwater, and we have specific polling data.”
Presidential Big Board
POLLS POLLS POLLS — A new Monmouth University poll in New Hampshire has the race there as a jump ball. Buttigeig is at 20 percent, Biden is at 19 percent, Sanders is at 18 percent and Warren is at 15 percent. Amy Klobuchar is a distant fifth at 6 percent, the last candidate at or above 5 percent (404 likely Democratic primary voters; Jan 3-7; +/- 4.9 percentage point MOE). It represented a big bump for Buttigieg, and a sizable drop for Warren, from a September Monmouth poll.
“The race remains fairly wide open,” said Monmouth poll director Patrick Murray, per Campaign Pro chief Steve Shepard. “To the extent that New Hampshire voters could take some cues from Iowa, it’s also worth keeping an eye on lower-polling candidates like Klobuchar if any of the leading contenders stumble in the earlier Iowa contest.”
— We also have a pair of Fox News polls, one in Nevada and one in South Carolina. The Nevada poll has Biden at 23 percent and Sanders at 17 percent. Warren and Steyer are each at 12 percent (you read that correctly). Buttigieg is at 6 percent, the last candidate at or above 5 percent (635 Democratic caucus-goers; Jan. 5-8; +/- 4 percentage point MOE).
And in South Carolina, Biden leads. Biden is at 36 percent to Steyer’s 15 percent (yes, you read that one correctly too), Sanders’ 14 percent and Warren’s 10 percent (Jan. 5-8; 808 Democratic primary voters; +/- 3.5 percentage point MOE).
— And if you just can’t get enough early state polling: The Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa poll is landing tonight at 6 p.m Eastern, just in time for happy hour.
THE DEBATE STAGE — Those aforementioned Fox News polls also qualified Steyer for the debate stage next Tuesday, where he’ll join Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders and Warren, I wrote. Steyer, who has spent at least eight figures on advertisements in both Nevada and South Carolina, slipped in under the wire; the deadline to qualify is today. Andrew Yang is the next closest to qualifying, having hit the donor threshold — but he would need 5 percent in three additional polls. The DMR/CNN/Mediacom poll counts as a qualifying poll, but no other polls have been publicly announced.
COMPROMISE CANDIDATE? — Warren is making a surprising closing argument as we approach Iowa (and the other early states): She’s the compromise candidate. “It’s the first time Warren’s orbit has made the electability pitch so overtly. But the campaign has been quietly implementing that strategy since 2018, when Warren raised or donated $11 million to Democratic candidates and began drawing subtle distinctions with Sanders,” POLITICO’s Alex Thompson wrote. “The pivot to an explicit horse-race message, coming as she’s dipped or plateaued in polls and as her fundraising slowed in the final quarter before voting begins, is part of a larger attempt to answer voters’ concerns about beating Trump.”
— Part of that pitch is Warren trying to win over her onetime rivals. The Washington Post’s Annie Linskey and Amy Wang wrote how her campaign is trying to win the endorsement of presidential candidates who have left the race.
JUST SUPER — Reason to Believe PAC, a pro-Deval Patrick super PAC, said it was launching a $2 million ad buy to boost Patrick. The first buy is in New Hampshire, the group says, with an ad that’s a positive biographical spot.
IN THE COURTS — Mike Bloomberg said he won’t move to “release women who have signed confidentiality agreements with his company to speak publicly about past allegations that the former New York City mayor fostered a hostile work environment for some female employees,” ABC News’ Sasha Pezenik, Tonya Simpson and Matthew Mosk reported. Bloomberg, to ABC: “You can't just walk away from it. … They're legal agreements, and for all I know the other side wouldn't want to get out of it.”
AD WARS — Bloomberg released his first Spanish-language ad of his campaign. “Throughout his life he has worked hard, demonstrated ingenuity, and shown to have a big heart, qualities that he learned growing up in a humble middle-class family.” the ad’s narrator says. The campaign said it is airing in 26 media markets on TV and digital.
ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Rep. Anthony Brown (D-Md.) endorsed Buttigieg on Thursday (Brown talked to The Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes about his endorsement). That’s Buttigieg’s fourth congressonial endorsement, per our tracker.
— The Sunrise Movement, a collection of largely young climate activists, endorsed Sanders. The New York Times’ Astead Herndon has more.
— Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, who once considered a presidential bid himself, backed Biden, per POLITICO’s David Siders.
UNIONIZING UP — Some of Yang’s campaign staffers in Iowa and Nevada unionized with the Campaign Workers Guild, and a statement from the workers said campaign management recognized the union.
VOTERS ACTUALLY VOTING, CONTINUED — Sorry Minnesota, I’m going to take some wind out of your sails now. I wrote on Thursday that Minnesota appears to be the state with the earliest in-person early voting, on Jan. 17 (still true!). But it also looks like absentee and mail ballots in other states have started trickling out (or will before then), so a Minnesotan probably was not the first to fill out their ballot. Still looks like they’ll be the first to cast their vote in-person, though!
Down the Ballot
THE CASH DASH — Money! I’m running out of ways to say that!
— IA-Sen: Democrat Theresa Greenfield raised $1.6 million and will report more than $2.1 million on hand in her bid to challenge GOP Sen. Joni Ernst.
— ME-Sen: Democrat Ross LaJeunesse raised $600,000 for his bid against GOP Sen. Susan Collins, which includes about $360,000 from his own pockets.
— MT-Sen: Democrat Cora Neumann raised $460,000 in the quarter but did not announce a cash on hand total, as she seeks to challenge GOP Sen. Steve Daines.
— CO-06: Freshman Democratic Rep. Jason Crow raised $440,000 and will report $1.4 million in cash on hand.
— NM-02: Freshman Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small raised over $900,000 and will report over $2.25 million in cash on hand.
— NV-03: Freshman Democratic Rep. Susie Lee raised more than $600,000 and has $1.5 million in cash on hand, per The Nevada Independent’s Jacob Solis.
— NY-11: Republican state Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis raised $306,000 and will report $723,000 as she looks to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Max Rose.
— NY-16: Jamaal Bowman, a Justice Democrats-backed primary challenger to Rep. Eliot Engel, raised $162,000 in the quarter. He did not announce a cash on hand total.
— OH-01: GOP Rep. Steve Chabot announced he raised $450,000 but did not announce a cash on hand total.
— OR-02: Republican Knute Buehler, who is running to replace retiring GOP Rep. Greg Walden in this red seat, raised $360,000 and did not announce a cash on hand balance (Buehler got into the race in December).
— SC-01: Freshman Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham raised $900,000 in the fourth quarter and will report $2.1 million in cash on hand. Republican Nancy Mace raised $375,000 and has $727,000 in cash on hand, per The Post and Courier’s Caitlin Bryd.
— TX-01: GOP Rep. Louie Gohmert raised $45,000 and has just $4,000 in the bank, per his FEC filing. This is an über-safe seat (obviously), but I can’t recall seeing a cash on hand balance that low for an incumbent who was actually seeking reelection.
— VA-05: Democrat Claire Russo raised $210,000 for her challenge to freshman GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman. She did not release a cash on hand total (we have the race as leaning likely Republican in our election forecast).
FIRST IN SCORE — AD WARS — One Nation, a nonprofit affiliated with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, is launching a new ad in Maine to boost Sen. Susan Collins, Campaign Pro’s James Arkin writes in. The ad features a mother who says her family faces “challenges” with her daughter’s diabetes and insulin costs, but that Collins is “leading the charge to bring the cost of insulin down.” The issue is a theme for the outside group, which has run two previous ads in Maine on diabetes. One Nation is spending $536,000, and the ad is running on TV from Friday through Jan 19, and on radio and digital from Jan. 20 through Jan. 30.
THE SENATE MAP — We have an aggressively early debate ahead of the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary. Sen. Ed Markey, Rep. Joe Kennedy and Shannon Liss-Riordan agreed to two more debates — with one on March 18 and another on Aug. 18, a couple weeks before the Sept. 1 primary — on top of a debate already scheduled for next month.
THE HOUSE MAP — Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez, a Republican, is telling supporters he will announce a run next week against freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in FL-26, the Miami Herald’s David Smiley and Douglas Hanks report. National Republicans have been trying to coax Gimenez, a prolific fundraiser, into the race.
— GOP Rep. Will Hurd may be retiring from his battleground TX-23 seat. But his presence hangs over the primary, The Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek wrote: “National Republican leaders have touted” Tony Gonzales, whom Hurd has endorsed, “as the party's best shot at maintaining their hold on the seat. But first he has to make it out of a nine-way primary — and one with no shortage of fellow Republicans with opinions about Hurd.”
FEELING SPECIAL — EMILY’s List is endorsing Maya Rockeymoore Cummings in the crowded special election in MD-07. Rockeymoore Cummings, the former state party chair, is running to fill the seat of her late husband, Rep. Elijah Cummings. The primary for the blue seat is on Feb. 4.
CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Bailey loves everyone. Bailey thinks human beings are on this Earth to pat Bailey.” — Warren, on her golden retriever Bailey, to Cosmopolitan.
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